The economics of another U.S. government shutdown
A shutdown will hurt the economy, placing a drag on spending and overall economic activity as we approach the traditional holiday season.
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Falling jobless claims, existing home sales offer mixed economic picture
The mixed signals from Thursday's data on initial jobless claims and existing home sales added to an economic picture that resembles a soft landing.
U.S. July jobs report: Gradual and orderly cooling in the labor market
The 187,000 net change in total employment and a 3.5% unemployment rate in July show cooling demand by firms as the economy grows near its 1.8% long-term trend.
U.S. inventories are growing at twice the rate of sales
The surge in inventories raises the risk that firms will be caught with excess supplies just as demand begins to slow down this year.
How high will interest rates go?
We expect the Fed to raise its policy rate above 5% in the near term while at the same time reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion per month.
Fed raises its policy rate by 75 basis points as it prepares to slow pace of hikes
The Federal Reserve increased its policy rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday to a range between 3.75% and 4% as it hinted at slowing the pace of its hikes.
U.S. housing supply continues to fall amid rising mortgage rates
There were 1.56 million new housing starts in June on an annualized basis, a 2.0% decline from May and the lowest level since last September.
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index shows 35% probability of recession over next year
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index declined into negative terrain in May, signaling the impact of high inflation, rising interest rates, the lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine.